Responses to a recent survey from the Pew Research Center on the Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation re the Internet, from Lee Rainie, Janna Anderson, and Kathleen Stansberry
Lee Rainie
Director, Internet and Technology Research
Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
4. Follow up - Explain your answer about the future of democracy
Place your name at the beginning of the response if you are willing to have it attributed to you. If you do not, it will be an unattributed response in our report. Taking credit for your remarks adds value to your answer and to this report.
Please explain your response to the last question: What do you expect democracy to look like in 2030 from the perspective of citizens? What aspects of essential democratic institutions will change? What role will technology play in whatever changes take place?
If you believe democratic institutions and processes are unlikely to be significantly affected in new ways by technology or other forces in the next decade, what do you think that means for society?
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Scott GK MacLeod:
What do you expect democracy to look like in 2030 from the perspective of citizens?
In the US, I think democracy will build on current American democratic processes and institutions, without dramatic change: 1) Voters, those disabled too, may be able to vote from their computers via voice with identity verified (1 person, 1 vote); 2) Ranked-choice voting as in Maine may become mainstream in 50 states; 3) Issues voted upon may be more tied information-technology-wise to knowledge resources.
What aspects of essential democratic institutions will change?
US representative democracy may be extended to include more individuals including even potentially other species (other higher primates in the US + 'cognitive' species in US waters - dolphins, octopi).
In terms of representative democracy and the US Constitution, I think technology will change these 4 institutions by 2030: A) Free, fair, and frequent elections, B) Freedom of expression, C) Independent sources of information, D) Freedom of association - mediated by information technology but safeguarded by the Constitution (See:
https://www.britannica.com/topic/democracy/The-value-of-democracy) - perhaps by increasing all of the above.
What role will technology play in whatever changes take place?
In terms of the "Network Society" (per Manuel Castells) and democracy in the US - and re his juxtaposition of Net and Self (e.g. diverse identities as voting groups), I think technology will continue to co-constitute a "liberal democracy with well-established and reasonably effective political institutions headed up by a credible system of electoral representation" (
https://www.insidehighered.com/views/2019/03/08/review-manuel-castells-rupture-crisis-liberal-democracy) supported especially by the US legal system.
I hope CC-4 MIT OpenCourseWare-centric wiki World University and School's faculty and students will be able to teach and learn online about developments in the future of democracy, both in the US and in each of the other ~200 countries in the world, and in their languages too -
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Political_Science - and potentially in the WUaS Law Schools planned in ~200 nation states/countries' languages online as well, here, for example:
Law Schools at World University and School (planned in main languages in them)
Afghanistan Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Afghanistan_Law_School_at_WUaSBrazil Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Brazil_Law_School_at_WUaSChina Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/China_Law_School_at_WUaSEgypt Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Egypt_Law_School_at_WUaSIndia Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/India_Law_School_at_WUaSJamaica Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Jamaica_Law_School_at_WUaSMexico Law School at WUaS:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/Mexico_Law_School_at_WUaSWorld University Law School:
https://wiki.worlduniversityandschool.org/wiki/World_University_Law_SchoolThe importance of legal systems and especially re related information technologies, artificial intelligence and machine learning will play a very significant role here too.
Thanks,
Scott GK MacLeod
President, Founder & Professor
worlduniversityandschool.orgscottmacleod.com* *
Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
5. Question 2 - The future of social and civic innovation
As the Industrial Revolution swept through societies, people eventually took steps to mitigate abuses and harms that emerged. For instance, new laws were enacted to make workplaces safer and protect children; standards were created for product safety and effectiveness; new kinds of organizations came into being to help workers (e.g., labor unions) and make urban life more meaningful (e.g., settlement houses, Boys/Girls Clubs); new educational institutions were created (e.g., trade schools); household roles in families were reconfigured.
Today’s “techlash” illuminates the issues that have surfaced in the digital era. We seek your insights as to whether and how reforms to ease these problems and others might unfold.
The question: Will significant social and civic innovation occur between now and 2030?
YES
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
6. Follow-up question on social and civic innovation
Will humans’ use of technology lead to or prevent significant social and civic innovation? By “social and civic innovation” we mean the creation of things like new technology tools, legal protections, social norms, new or reconfigured groups and communities, educational efforts and other strategies to address digital-age challenges.
YES - Technology use will contribute to social and civic innovation that significantly mitigates problems of the digital age
Technology use will prevent social and civic innovation from significantly overcoming the negatives of the digital age
Technology use will have no effect on social and civic innovation
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
7. Follow up: Explain your answer
Place your name at the beginning of the response if you are willing to have it attributed to you. If you do not, it will be an unattributed response in our report. Taking credit for your remarks adds value to your answer and to this report.
Please explain your response to the question about the impact of social and civic innovation. If you see no relief, why? If you see success in social and civic innovation as likely, how might it come to pass and what kinds of new groups, systems and tools will be created?
Scott GK MacLeod:
I think that success in social and civic innovation is likely. It may come to pass with groups responding to problems created by information technologies, with new information technologies. I think MIT's and in particular MIT Media Lab Director's Joi Ito's focus on issues of racism in artificial intelligence and facial recognition is a good of example of this.
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On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur. By “social and civic innovation” we mean the creation of things like new technology tools, legal protections, social norms, new or reconfigured groups and communities, educational efforts and other strategies to address digital-age challenges.
1. Social and civic innovation will substantially modulate the power the power of large technology companies.
I chose 7 out of a scale of 10.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
9. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
2. Social and civic innovation will substantially lead to ethical advances in uses of algorithms
I chose 7 out of a scale of 10 again.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
10. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
3. Social and civic innovation will substantially improve the economic stability of the news media
I chose 6 out of a scale of 10.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
11. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
4. Social and civic innovation will substantially improve trust in democratic institutions
I chose 7 out of a scale of 10 again.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
12. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
5. Social and civic innovation will substantially lead to the creation of social media platforms where beneficial self-expression, connection and fact-based information are dominant
I chose 8 out of a scale of 10.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
13. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
6. Social and civic innovation will substantially enable political activities that lead to progress in solving major policy problems
I chose 6 out of a scale of 10.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
14. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
7. Social and civic innovation will substantially establish an acceptable balance between personal privacy and public safety
I chose 7 out of 10
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
15. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
8. Social and civic innovation will substantially reduce worker vulnerabilities associated with technological disruptions
I chose 8/10
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
16. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
9. Social and civic innovation will substantially improve people's physical health
I chose 7 out of 10
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
17. Questions about social and civic innovations
On a scale of 1-10 please rate the likelihood that this social and civic innovation change will take place. On this scale 1 means that the change will not occur and 10 is the certain likelihood that it will occur.
10. Social and civic innovation will substantially mitigate mental and emotional health problems tied to digital life
I chose 7 out of 10
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
18. Follow up to questions about social and civic innovation
Place your name at the beginning of the response if you are willing to have it attributed to you. If you do not, it will be an unattributed response in our report. Taking credit for your remarks adds value to your answer and to this report.
Please explain some of your answers to the previous questions about possible social and civic innovation. What types of successful social and civic innovation do you expect to see by 2030 in the areas you ranked as most likely to see positive change? Are there problems you believe are unlikely to be mitigated by any means? Which ones and why?
Scott GK MacLeod:
What types of successful social and civic innovation do you expect to see by 2030 in the areas you ranked as most likely to see positive change? Are there problems you believe are unlikely to be mitigated by any means? Which ones and why?
I'll focus here on how I think CC-4 MIT OpenCourseWare-centric wiki World University and School planned in ~200 countries' official languages, and in all 7,111 known living languages.
"substantially modulate the power the power of large technology companies"
WUaS seeks to engage in teaching and learning with regards to large technology companies, and hopefully our graduates will be able to work at large technology companies, thus modulating their power from within (much like MIT and Stanford graduates may have done this, for ex., both of which great universities, WUaS seeks to 'emerge from')
"substantially lead to ethical advances in uses of algorithms"
WUaS is Friendly/Quaker-informed, and hopefully related cultural thinking will lead to "ethical advances in uses of algorithms"
"substantially improve the economic stability of the news media"
Perhaps the news' media will be able to hire students from World University and School who have taken a business-related degree at WUaS.
"substantially improve trust in democratic institutions"
A teaching and learning opportunity with IT?
"substantially lead to the creation of social media platforms where beneficial self-expression, connection and fact-based information are dominant"
This is a growth area for students at World University and School, and around the world.
"substantially enable political activities that lead to progress in solving major policy problems"
While WUaS seeks to stay out of political activity, our faculty in many countries' languages will likely teach about successful approaches to this in the IT age.
"substantially establish an acceptable balance between personal privacy and public safety"
Potentially these will be legal / IT questions, and WUaS's Law Schools will be able to teach about best approaches to these questions.
"substantially reduce worker vulnerabilities associated with technological disruptions"
WUaS seeks to develop/facilitate both an Universal Basic Income / experiments, (perhaps in conjunction with a SINGLE cryptocurrency with blockchain ledger, backed by ~200 countries' central banks). In addition, and significantly, WUaS seeks to study academically how best to reduce worker vulnerabilities associated with technological disruptions, and over centuries (with innumerable implications for policy and develop information technologies in response)
"substantially improve people's physical health"
World University and School seeks to develop online medical schools with online teaching hospitals - and potentially even with avatar bot electronic health records for all 7.5 billion people on the planet (building on Project ECHO and Stanford / Duke / Google's Project Baseline) to develop maps toward physical health.
"substantially mitigate mental and emotional health problems tied to digital life"
World University and School seeks to develop online psychiatry, psychoanalysis, psychotherapy and fundamental research in psychology and brain science to address these issues globally, and therapeutically. WUaS also seeks to develop online teaching hospitals for online clinical care in these regards.
In a parallel way, World University and School plans to develop an online realistic virtual earth including especially a realistic virtual Harbin Hot Springs (my actual-virtual, physical-digital ethnographic field site) for healing, as well as "getting away from it all" - therapeutically especially. In addition, this actual-virtual Harbin Hot Springs' field site will focus on studying mental and emotional flourishing brain science-wise, as well as socioculturally.
In a very beginning way, here's what I have in mind by a 3D interactive realistic virtual universe / earth and at the atomic / cellular levels too in something like Google Street View with TIME SLIDER / Maps / Earth / Translate +++ : Visit the Harbin Hot Springs' gate here, and "walk""4 miles" down the road to "amble" around Middletown, CA:
http://tinyurl.com/p62rpcg ~
https://twitter.com/HarbinBook ~
http://bit.ly/HarbinBook ~ and check out "Pegman" in the lower left corner, which I think will grow into human avatar bots at the cellular and atomic levels too!
World University & School seeks for this realistic virtual earth / universe to facilitate very successful social and civic innovation by 2030 in the areas I ranked as most likely to see positive change.
--
- Scott MacLeod - Founder, President & Professor
- World University and School
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http://worlduniversityandschool.org-
http://scottmacleod.com- CC World University and School - like CC Wikipedia with best STEM-centric CC OpenCourseWare - incorporated as a nonprofit university and school in California, and is a U.S. 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt educational organization.
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
19. Questions for statistical purposes
In which region of the world do you work?
Africa
Asia/Southeast Asia
Europe
Group of Latin America and Caribbean Countries
> North America
Oceania
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
20. Questions for statistical purposes
What is your primary area of interest?
Advocate / Voice of the People / Activist User
Entrepreneur / Business leader
Futurist / Consultant
Pioneer / Originator
Research scientist
Technology developer / Administrator
Professor / Teacher
Other (please specify)
Educator: President, Founder and Professor/Teacher at World University and School
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
21.
If you wish, please give us your first name and last name. Again, we will not disclose your name without your explicit permission in answers you have entered.
Scott GK MacLeod
If you wish, please name the organization for which you primarily work. The report will clearly state that your comments are your own. Additionally, we describe the workplaces of respondents in our reports to lend context to answers.
World University and School
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Future of Democracy and Social/Civic Innovation - 12
22.
Thank you very much for your time and care in answering our questions. Please hit "Done" at the bottom of this screen when you have completed the survey.
The Pew Research Center and Elon University will issue several reports in the coming months covering the answers we collect. In addition, your answers, attributed or anonymous, will also be added to Imagining the Internet research site. If you know of other experts whose views who would contribute meaningful insights on these questions, please feel free to send them this link:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/PewElonExperts12With deepest appreciation,
Lee Rainie, lrainie@pewinternet.org
Director, Internet and Technology Research
Pew Research Center, Washington, D.C.
Kathleen Stansberry, kstansberry@elon.edu
Imagining the Internet Center, Elon University, N.C.
Janna Anderson, andersj@elon.edu
Imagining the Internet Center, Elon University, N.C.
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